As the commercial momentum behind Lilly’s tirzepatide franchise continues, analysts are increasingly turning their attention to new catalysts in the GLP-1 market, including the launch of oral obesity medicines and the recent rollout of a nationwide access program for older adults.
Since the summer debut of the GLP-1 Bridge program for Medicare Part D patients, Lilly executives have consistently pointed to the expanded access the program has offered older adults and the company’s early advantage over chief rival Novo Nordisk.
On Thursday, while detailing a 39% revenue jump for the third quarter, Lilly laid out additional details on how the new prescription pathway is expanding access to GLP-1 medicines.
As it stands, roughly “seven out of 10” older adults participating in the Bridge program are using a Lilly medicine, Ilya Yuffa, the company’s U.S. president, said on a Thursday call with analysts, noting that Lilly’s products have “performed really well” across the program so far.
The remaining share goes to Novo, with the two companies dominating the U.S. market for GLP-1 medicines used to treat diabetes and obesity.
While Lilly has gained a U.S. market advantage over Novo in injectable obesity treatments with its tirzepatide-based megablockbuster Zepbound, the competitive dynamics have shifted with the companies’ oral GLP-1 medicines: Foundayo (orforglipron) for Lilly and the semaglutide-based Wegovy pill for Novo.
Analysts’ attention Thursday therefore turned to whether the Bridge program was moving the needle on Foundayo’s launch, which has lagged that of the Wegovy pill since its April debut, roughly three months after Novo’s oral medicine.
According to Yuffa, about 75% of patients entering the Bridge program are opting for injectables, a trend that may reflect the high efficacy bar set by Lilly’s own Zepbound, the executive suggested. Nevertheless, Lilly is witnessing “good growth and uptake of orals and Foundayo as well” through the Bridge, Yuffa said.
Foundayo generated $184 million in third-quarter sales. While the medicine continues to gain share in the oral obesity market, sales fell short of analysts’ expectations, the team at Citi wrote in a note to clients Thursday.
As for the Bridge program’s broader impact on GLP-1 use, Yuffa noted that about 80% of patients using the program are new to incretin therapies, describing what the company sees as a “significant driver of access long-term.”
Reflecting on Foundayo’s U.S. launch, “We’ve made significant progress since last quarter,” Yuffa pointed out on Thursday’s call, noting a recent uptick in consumer awareness thanks in part to a marketing campaign featuring Martha Stewart.
Yuffa said that Lilly’s share of new prescriptions in the U.S. oral obesity market is approaching “four out of 10,” which he described as “good progress overall.”
Questions also surfaced during the call about Foundayo’s dose-escalation timeline, with Yuffa explaining that about 25% of patients have reached one of the drug’s maintenance doses, a proportion he suggested is “actually higher than what you see on the Wegovy pill.”
Lilly CEO Dave Ricks also pointed to the opportunity awaiting Foundayo in type 2 diabetes, which he said accounts for “roughly half the volume of GLP-1s” in the U.S. Novo also sells an oral diabetes medication under the Ozempic brand, a reformulated version of its semaglutide-based Rybelsus tablets. The product is distinct from Novo’s Wegovy pill for obesity.
Since its U.S. debut, Foundayo has expanded its reach this year with launches in the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and Mexico, Patrik Jonsson, president of Lilly International, said.
So far, those international launches have also performed “very much in line with our expectations,” Jonsson said, adding that Lilly is seeing signs that oral GLP-1s are expanding the pool of patients receiving incretin therapies outside the U.S.
In January, Yuffa will step into the newly created role of president of Lilly Global Markets, assuming responsibility for both the U.S. and the company’s commercial operations abroad as Jonsson prepares to retire after 36 years with the drugmaker.
In the third quarter, Lilly generated $24.4 billion in revenue, representing a 39% year-over-year increase and coming in $1.8 billion above consensus projections, according to Citi analysts.
Unsurprisingly, Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity remained Lilly’s biggest growth drivers for the period, with Mounjaro generating $10.7 billion compared with Zepbound’s $5.4 billion. That represented year-over-year growth of 65% and 49%, respectively.
As Lilly maintains its lead in the broader U.S. GLP-1 market, Mounjaro’s sales also benefited from strong growth abroad, the Citi team pointed out. The analysts added that Mounjaro and Zepbound’s continued growth trajectories several years after their launches “remain impressive.”
Other significant contributors to third-quarter revenue included Jardiance, which delivered $1.6 billion, and Trulicity at $904 million. The Citi team said the two medicines collectively gave Lilly “additional cardiometabolic breadth.”
With its incretin business continuing to grow, Lilly raised its full-year revenue guidance to $91 billion to $92 billion, a $5.5 billion increase at the midpoint.