Since Zepbound was approved by the FDA to treat obesity in late 2023, its maker Eli Lilly has been steadily closing in on fierce rival Novo Nordisk’s early lead in the obesity market.
Lilly’s offering is expected to surpass Novo’s Wegovy in the space, and, according to a report this week from GlobalData, it could happen much sooner than later.
The analysts pointed to several factors clearing Zepbound’s path to market domination. For one, Lilly in early December shared the results of a head-to-head trial pitting Zepbound against Wegovy, in which Zepbound emerged triumphant. According to the study, participants taking Zepbound lost an average of 20.2% of their starting weight after 72 weeks, compared to a 13.7% loss for those on Wegovy, which Lilly billed as proof that Zepbound is 47% more effective than Wegovy as a weight-loss aid.
Additionally, Lilly closed out the year by snagging a key new approval for Zepbound in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), making it the first prescription drug approved by the FDA for both obesity and moderate to severe OSA. The company is also testing tirzepatide in heart failure, prediabetes and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).
Wegovy, meanwhile, earned its own landmark nod earlier in 2024, when it became the first weight-loss med approved to reduce the risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack and stroke in adult patients with cardiovascular disease who have obesity or are overweight. And, like Lilly, Novo is also testing its semaglutide in a host of other indications, including chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease and MASH.
Lilly has been steadily chipping away at Novo’s dominance in the obesity space. New U.S. prescriptions of Zepbound surpassed those for Wegovy for the first time in early March 2024, Reuters reported at the time, just a few months after Zepbound’s launch. By August, analysts were estimating that Zepbound had captured 40% of the U.S. obesity market, hot on Wegovy’s heels.
That said, Lilly still trails Novo in terms of sales. In their respective third-quarter earnings reports, the companies tallied sales of $1.26 billion for Zepbound—falling short of analysts’ projection of $1.7 billion for the period—versus about $2.5 billion for Wegovy, which outperformed the analyst consensus by about 8%.
“The impact of Wegovy on the obesity market has been huge. Key Opinion Leaders interviewed by GlobalData defined it as ‘revolutionary,’” Costanza Alciati, a pharma analyst for GlobalData, said in the report.
“Now with Zepbound, the revolution continues, and Eli Lilly’s drug is more potent, and perhaps negotiations with national health services will also make it more cost-effective than Wegovy,” Alciati continued. “So, Zepbound is expected to take the lead in the obesity market if it hasn’t already done so.”