AbbVie’s migraine drug Ubrelvy (ubrogepant) is slated to be the top-selling drug in the migraine space in 2033 across the seven bigger pharma markets as total spend across those countries are set to rake in $16.4 billion.
That’s according to new migraine market figures out by analysts at GlobalData. They see Ubrelvy hitting sales of $1.07 billion in 2033, primarily because it has one of the later patent expiry dates in what has become a large and highly competitive migraine market.
Drug treatments and preventive meds include the likes of AbbVie’s other migraine meds, Qulipta and Botox, as well as Pfizer’s Nurtec ODT, Lundbeck’s Vyepti, Eli Lilly’s Emgality and Reyvow, and Teva’s Ejovy. There are also a lot of older, cheaper drugs on the market.
The seven markets, often used by GlobalData for these figures, comprise the U.S., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the U.K. and Japan.
Last year, these countries saw their total combined migraine market worth $9.2 billion, but this will swell to $16.4 billion by 2033 at a compound annual growth rate of 6%, according to GlobalData.
The analysts see the growth as being “primarily driven by increased prescription of calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) antagonists—monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) for prevention and oral gepants for both acute and preventive treatment,” they said in the report.
Philippa Salter, managing neurology analyst at GlobalData, notes, however, that reimbursement issue from payers for newer meds is an issue that is restricting some growth of the market.
“When compared with the cheap generic drugs dominating current standard-of-care drug classes, such as triptans in the acute setting, and non-migraine-specific treatment classes, such as antidepressants, anticonvulsants, and beta blockers for prevention, CGRP antagonists have significantly higher annual costs of therapy.
“However, the growth in these drug classes will be limited by reimbursement restrictions, as well as the patent expiries of all these branded drugs towards the end of the forecast period.”
GlobalData also scanned the horizon and sees seven products in the late-stage biopharma pipeline that could be approved across some or all the seven big countries up to 2033, something that “will be another driver of growth for the market.”
The analysts note, however, that “there is a lack of novelty among these products,” and the majority focus on reformulations and combinations, “meaning that the triptans will not be displaced as first-line acute therapies.”