At first glance, the list of cancer drug makers predicted to head the field by 2024 may not look so different from the list of top-selling cancer drug makers in 2017. The cast of characters is largely the same, and Roche, Celgene and Bristol-Myers Squibb—which took the top three spots last year—are projected by EvaluatePharma to rank 1-2-3 six years from now, too.
But the lists themselves don’t tell the whole story, because while Roche, Celgene and Bristol-Myers may be set to retain their top rankings, they can’t say the same for their market share.
Look at 2017. The trio of drugmakers together held a 45.8% share of the market, with longtime cancer leader Roche controlling 26.4% all on its own. In 2024, though, market intelligence firm EvaluatePharma expects to see much more parity. The top three’s share will shrink to 26.2%, with Roche’s dropping all the way down to 11.9%. And the No. 2 through No. 5 companies—BMS, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Merck—will boast shares within less than a percentage point of one another.
And it won’t just be the heavy hitters clawing for a piece of the pie. Last year, companies outside the top 10 grabbed just 21.5% of the market. That number is set to nearly double by 2024—swelling to 39.7%—thanks to big recent approvals for companies including Gilead Sciences, Eli Lilly, Tesaro, Clovis and more.
So what does this all mean for an already ultracompetitive lung cancer field? Things are about to get even more competitive. Read on to learn more about EvaluatePharma's forecasts—which were generated in June 2018 and can be found at Evaluate Ltd.—and the market battles that will determine whether they become reality. Questions? Comments? As always, don’t hesitate to reach out. — Carly Helfand email | Twitter