AstraZeneca is riding a wave with its oncology, China and rare disease meds, and it could ride that wave to $41 billion in revenue in 2026, Evaluate forecasts. Hitting that lofty figure would require AstraZeneca to grow at an impressive 8.47% clip annually from its $24.4 billion in 2019 revenue.
Growing that drastically in the coming years seems like a tall task for one of the biggest drugmakers in the world, but Evaluate's forecast is a testament to the blockbuster strength of AstraZeneca's oncology lineup.
In the first quarter, AstraZeneca's cancer sales jumped 33% from the previous year, driven by top-seller Tagrisso. The EGFR lung cancer drug generated sales of $982 million, coming in 12% ahead of consensus. PARP inhibitor Lynparza’s $397 million and immuno-oncology drug Imfinzi’s $462 million both came in above analysts’ estimates, too.
And all three of those blockbusters have more room for growth—particularly Tagrisso, which could have a multibillion-dollar indication in the works.
In postsurgery patients with EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer, Tagrisso cut the risk of disease recurrence or death by a whopping 83% compared with placebo, AstraZeneca revealed in May. In mid-April, at the recommendation of an independent data monitoring committee, AstraZeneca unblinded those phase 3 trial results two years early.
If the drug can win global green lights in the adjuvant setting, it could add about 60,000 patients across the U.S., Europe, Japan and China, which is about a quarter of the size of Tagrisso's current patient pool But post-surgery patients would also stay on Tagrisso for between two and three years, making the opportunity a significant one.
SVB Leerink analyst Andrew Berens, for his part, expects to see swift uptake, with "superlative efficacy likely to rapidly establish Tagrisso adjuvant usage as standard of care," he wrote in a note to clients at the time. After seeing the data, Berens upped his estimate for peak adjuvant sales to $5.6 billion from $1.5 billion, bringing his prediction for Tagrisso's peak worldwide sales to about $16 billion.