Launches from Novo, Lilly top Clarivate's annual 'Drugs to Watch' list

If innovative cancer therapies were the top launches to watch in 2024, this year’s high-profile biopharma debuts is slated to look quite a bit different.

Clarivate’s Drugs to Watch in 2025 report (PDF) predicts that Novo’s new once-weekly insulin Awiqli will pick up $4.7 billion in sales by 2030, making it one of the hottest launches of the year. 

The company’s CagriSema, however, is estimated to generate $4.7 billion in obesity sales by then, plus $3.6 billion in the type 2 diabetes indication, making for a whopping $8.3 billion in total 2030 sales.

Clarivate’s 12th annual Drugs to Watch report tracks notable drugs that recently hit the market or are expected to in 2025. Its sales estimates reflect expected revenues in the G7 countries of the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Italy, Germany and Spain.

Novo and Eli Lilly have been duking it out in the fields of diabetes and obesity in recent years, but Lilly has another blockbuster-to-be on its hands outside of this space. Clarivate expects the company’s Almirall-partnered Ebglyss to make a significant dent in the crowded atopic dermatitis treatment landscape, generating $6 billion in 2030.

Lilly and Novo’s entries on the list blew the other blockbuster contenders out of the water in terms of sales potential as the only products expected to cross the $4 billion mark. Still, 2025 should bring a “turning point” for the life sciences sector with “dynamic forces at play” including progress in precision oncology and radiopharmaceuticals, Clarivate’s global head of thought leadership, life sciences & healthcare, Mike Ward said in a press release.

Last year’s Clarivate's report placed several cancer therapies at the top of the list. While that spot was taken over this year, there are still new oncology drugs to watch in 2025: Exelixis’ tyrosine kinase inhibitor zanzalintinib, for one, is expected to reach $2.6 billion in 2030 sales across its potential indications in renal cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer and squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck, according to the firm.

Amgen’s small cell lung cancer infusion treatment Imdelltra, meanwhile, is predicted to achieve sales of $2.1 billion in 2030, while Pfizer and Arvinas’ breast cancer candidate vepdegestrant should reach $1.19 billion in sales by then, Clarivate said.

Elsewhere, Alnylam and Sanofi’s hemophilia treatment fitusiran is looking at $1 billion in 2030 sales after its expected launch this year, while Sobi and Seleca Biosciences’ gout candidate SEL-212 is estimated to reach $1.7 billion that year.

Bristol Myers Squibb’s recently launched schizophrenia med Cobenfy is already making waves in the antipsychotic treatment landscape, and Clarivate expects it to reach sales of $1.6 billion by 2030.

Up-and-coming vaccines held down a spot in the report as well, with GSK’s 5-in-1 meningococcal disease vaccine looking at $905 million in sales across the U.S. and Europe by 2030 and Moderna’s offering in the growing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine space mRESVIA tracking at $1.4 billion in expected 2030 sales across the G7 markets.