Sanofi's Quadrivalent Fluzone to Earn Up to $384m by 2022, says GlobalData
• Sanofi's Fluzone Quadrivalent vaccine, approved in US two days ago, to generate revenues of $384m by 2022
• Quadrivalent vaccines to 'cannibalize' market shares of trivalent formulas, says analyst
• Vaccines offering novel routes of administration, such as Fluzone IntraDermal, will also influence sales
Sanofi received FDA approval for its Supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) for Fluzone Quadrivalent on Monday, June 10, 2013. The seasonal influenza vaccine, formulated with two influenza A and B subtypes, offers a more comprehensive and robust immunity profile against the circulating influenza strains in comparison to Sanofi's former trivalent favorite.
Ramya Kartikeyan, PhD PPM, GlobalData's Head of Infectious Disease, expects that a new wave of QIVs will cannibalize sales revenues generated by trivalent vaccines before fully supplanting them as the standard for vaccination. The upcoming 2013 launches of AstraZeneca's FluMist, a nasally-administered seasonal influenza vaccine, and GlaxoSmithKline's Fluarix, add to the range of new QIVs available in the market.
"QIVs offer a better immunity profile for the younger population, as a large number of children often succumb to infections caused by circulating influenza B subtypes," states Kartikeyan. "With the addition of a fourth strain, participating vaccine manufacturers have undertaken a step towards developing a universal vaccine that could potentially protect against both seasonal and pandemic influenza strains.
"In addition to new formulations, the future of influenza vaccines also rests on the success of novel routes of administration that are able to better stimulate the innate immune system to produce a strong response to the viral antigen. This trend is expected to influence the sales of Fluzone QIV, as the vaccine will face competition from the growing use of Fluzone IntraDermal."
The new intradermal vaccine is expected to show revenue growth at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.9%, resulting in 2022 sales of approximately $76.5m in 2022.
Sanofi's mix of Fluzone influenza vaccine products, consisting of Fluzone, Fluzone IntraDermal, and Fluzone High-Dose, a special high-dose version marketed towards the elderly, is expected to help position the multinational vaccine manufacturer as a formidable player in the US market. Over the next decade, GlobalData predicts that new players like Novavax and Protein Sciences Corporation will carve out a niche in the existing market landscape by competing with current heavyweights like Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis and CSL.
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Commentary is provided by Ramya Kartikeyan, PhD PPM, GlobalData's Head of Infectious Disease. For more information, or to request an interview, please contact our press office at [email protected].
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