Roche’s Vabysmo disappointed investors again. In the second quarter, the eye drug’s sales of about 1.04 billion Swiss francs ($1.27 billion) missed analysts’ expectations by 7.1%.
Speaking on an investor call Thursday, Roche Pharmaceuticals CEO Teresa Graham assured analysts that the U.S. branded market has stabilized after a period of contraction, though the explosive growth that Vabysmo enjoyed early in its launch is likely behind it.
“We are seeing that 2% to 3% growth in the overall retinal market,” Graham said. “We do expect that this is going to be the new normal, and we don’t expect a rebound to previous levels.”
Vabysmo’s Q2 sales figure represents a 1% decline year over year. But Roche expects the drug’s revenue in the U.S. to grow by a low- to mid-single-digit for the full year, and its global sales to increase by low double-digits, according to Graham.
“We continue to consider consensus peak sales expectations for Vabysmo of around 6 billion [Swiss francs], it’s very reasonable, and we’re confident that we’re on track to achieve this number,” Graham said.
Initially approved by the FDA in early 2022, Vabysmo started to show signs of a deceleration toward the latter half of 2025, partly thanks to the closure of certain copay assistance programs. The first biosimilar to a key rival drug, Regeneron’s Eylea, was also launched toward the end of 2024.
Graham stressed that the Eylea biosimilar didn’t impact Vabysmo. In the ophthalmology space, biosimilars tend to only affect the originators that they reference, without much bleed-over to other products, she observed.
Citing physician surveys, Graham noted that Vabysmo is a physicians’ favorite and therefore expects it to “take a disproportionate share” of the overall branded market growth.
Beyond Vabysmo, immunology drug Xolair was cited as the biggest growth driver in Roche’s pharma business. In Q2, Xolair’s sales jumped 21% year over year, reaching 965 million Swiss francs ($1.18 billion) while crushing Wall Street consensus by 10.5%.
A slowdown could be around the corner. Roche currently projects a September entry for the first Xolair biosimilar in the U.S. But the Swiss pharma is still guiding to roughly 20% growth for the entire year of 2026.
Elsewhere in the immunology department, Graham expressed excitement over the potential of Gazyva—a CD20 antibody initially utilized as a cancer therapy—in autoimmune indications. Despite continued competitive pressure in the chronic lymphocytic leukemia field pulling back Gazyva to flat sales year over year, Graham cited “first early indications” of its launch progress in lupus nephritis. In the U.S., Germany and the U.K., where Gazyva is available in lupus, Roche recorded Gazyva quarterly sales growth with patient share approaching 10%, according to Graham.
Roche expects FDA decisions on three Gazyva label expansion opportunities this year, including idiopathic nephrotic syndrome on Sept. 27, membranous nephropathy on Nov. 15 and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) on Dec. 4. With all of Gazyva’s immunology indications filed with the FDA, Roche expects that they will fuel its 2 billion Swiss francs peak sales ambition. In Q2, Gazyva sales of 242 million Swiss francs missed consensus by 8.4%.
In lupus, Roche has stopped development of a CD19xCD3 bispecific after evaluating the drug in a phase 1 SLE trial. Simultaneously, the company has moved Lunsumio, a CD20xCD3 T-cell engager approved for blood cancer treatment, into phase 2 testing for SLE.
“SLE is a very heterogeneous and complex disease,” Graham explained on the Q2 call. “While we saw great results with Gazyva, we do believe there’s an opportunity for more benefit for patients, and based on Lunsumio’s mechanism of action and its safety profile, we think it could actually be a really great option for patients with SLE.”
Overall, Roche’s 12.16 billion Swiss francs in pharmaceutical sales came 1.3% ahead of consensus, boosting group-wide sales to 15.5 billion Swiss francs during Q2.