Pfizer may look messy post-Upjohn spinoff, but better days could be ahead: analyst

Pfizer
Pfizer's Upjohn spinoff merger with Mylan is expected to close in Q2. (Pfizer)

Confronting generic pricing pressure that put a hard cap on profits, Pfizer's Upjohn spinoff deal with Mylan allowed both companies to reinvent themselves in the face of stagnant growth. The Pfizer left over after the merger could be a "messy" one, one analyst says, but brighter days should be on the horizon.

After shedding its generics business, the Pfizer "set to emerge is a best-in-class growth story on [its] smaller, more innovative base," RBC Capital Markets analyst Randall Stanicky said in a Monday note to investors. Essentially, a smaller company built on branded drugs can deliver a higher percentage growth than a bigger one diluted by low-upside generics.

Between 2021 and 2025, Pfizer could see 6% annual revenue growth based on the strength of its "core five" products, including Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz, Eliquis and Prevnar, Stanicky figures. He pointed in particular to targeted therapy Vyndaqel, which could see strong uptake in ATTR-CM and become one of Pfizer's "most important drivers" this year. 

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Those five products don't face a meaningful patent loss until after 2025, Stanicky noted, giving Pfizer plenty of room to identify a strategic acquisition or invest further into its pipeline to keep growth on the uptick in the following years. 

RELATED: Read may say goodbye to Pfizer, but he'll join the board at spinoff Viatris

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