After a period of unsteady sales for its key COVID-19 products, Pfizer now sees COVID-related revenue volatility as “largely in the past.”
In an investor presentation (PDF) Tuesday, the company made that declaration and added that its COVID-related uncertainties have “diminished" as of late.
In the fourth quarter, a larger-than-expected sales haul of $4.1 billion from Pfizer's COVID vaccine Cominaty and its antiviral Paxlovid helped drive the company’s total revenue of $17.8 billion, which was ahead of consensus estimates, Leerink analysts wrote in a note to clients.
Other products such as Eliquis, Nurtec, Vyndaqel and Ibrance helped drive the sales beat, as well. On the flip side, vaccines Prevnar and Abrysvo underperformed expectations.
RSV vaccine Abrysvo specifically floundered in the fourth quarter. The product's sales fell 62% year over year to $198 million, a performance Pfizer attributed to the narrowing market opportunity afforded by new vaccination recommendations from the CDC.
Last year, the agency recommended RSV vaccines for people 75 years and older and those ages 60 to 74 with a higher risk of severe disease. Previously, RSV vaccines were recommended for all adults ages 60 and older upon consultation with a doctor.
Outside of the new recommendations, both Abrysvo and Prevnar face heavy-hitting competition. GSK’s Arexvy has been leading the charge in the RSV vaccine sales race so far. Elsewhere, Merck’s 21-serotype pneumococcal disease vaccine Capvaxive stands to edge in on Prevnar's turf in that field.
However, with its $43 billion Seagen acquisition firmly under its belt, Pfizer has solid footing in the hot antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) market, Edward Jones healthcare analyst John Boylan pointed out in a note to clients. Boylan sees Pfizer as poised to return to “predictable growth” thanks to its new products and “significant” cost-reducing measures while COVID sales should eventually fluctuate based on the severity of the season.
As it stands, the current COVID trends show the company's portfolio sustainability, Pfizer said. Paxlovid utilization remains “steady and consistent” with successive COVID waves, while the latest U.S. COVID vaccine administration figures remain “largely aligned” with last year's numbers, according to the presentation.
Now, the “stage is set” for profit margin expansion, buoyed by commercial execution and cost-savings efforts, Pfizer added.
Beyond its ongoing commercial efforts, this year the company expects four regulatory decisions, nine phase 3 readouts and 13 potential pivotal program starts from its pipeline.
In 2024, Pfizer collected $63.6 billion in total revenues, representing 12% operational growth across non-COVID products. For 2025, the company is forecasting revenue in a range between $61 billion and $64 billion.