Vexed by plummeting demand for their shots, COVID-19 vaccine producers are anxiously awaiting the fall inoculation season to get a glimpse of the post-pandemic market landscape, which includes a shift to a commercial model for vaccines in the U.S.
Thursday, Moderna presented preliminary data from a clinical trial of its updated mRNA shot, showing that it generates a robust response against currently circulating variants.
The updated Moderna vaccine shows a significant boost in neutralizing antibodies against the EG.5 (eris) and FL.1.5.1 (fornax) variants, the company said.
The World Health Organization recently classified the EG.5 strain as a “variant of interest,” which means it should be closely watched but is not considered any more contagious or severe than previous lineages.
Eris, which is a subvariant of omicron, is the fastest-growing strain in the U.S., causing 17% of new infections, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Meanwhile, the FL.1.5.1 variant is also taking hold in the U.S., accounting for 10% of new infections.
Moderna has submitted the data to the FDA, the European Medicines Agency and other regulators around the world, it said. It will be ready for the fall vaccination season with “sufficient global supply,” Moderna said.
Earlier this month, when Moderna reported its quarterly earnings, the company said it expected 100 million vaccine doses would be administered in the U.S. this fall.
In the first half of this year, Modena registered vaccine sales of $2.2 billion, with only $334 million coming in the second quarter. For the year, the company is guiding to a broad window—$6 billion to $8 billion—up from its previous estimate of $5 billion.
Meanwhile, Pfizer and Novavax are also working on updated versions of their COVID-19 vaccines. In the second quarter, Pfizer reported disappointing sales of its Comirnaty vaccine at $1.49 billion, which prompted the company to reduce its projected window for 2023 revenue by $1 billion on both ends.
For its part, Novavax said earlier this month that it expects its updated COVID vaccine—the only non-mRNA shot on the market in the U.S.—to reach the market in September. The company reported $424 million in revenue in the second quarter and expects revenue for the year to reach between $1.3 and $1.5 billion, down from a previous estimate of $1.4 to $1.6 billion.