Moderna’s third quarter proves COVID can still prove a viable source of revenue. The Massachusetts mRNA vaccine maker posted $1.3 billion in third-quarter sales Friday, crushing analyst expectations of $885 million and a loss.
Hype around the company—including a nearly 700% surge in stock price since the beginning of the year—has largely centered on the experimental cancer vaccine Moderna is co-developing with Merck. While phase 3 results shared last month look promising, the company’s third quarter beat shows that its respiratory vaccine portfolio is still capable of doing heavy lifting too.
Moderna’s $1.3 billion haul, a 29% increase over the same period in 2025, was accompanied by $162 million in net profit, a significant turnaround from the $200 million loss it posted at the same time last year. The third quarter is traditionally Moderna’s strongest due to the seasonal schedule of its vaccines.
For the full year, Moderna is now forecasting 15% to 25% revenue growth, a sizeable hike from its previous estimate of an up to 10% 2026 sales increase.
The revenue beat was primarily driven by increased uptake of the company's COVID vaccine in international markets, according to Moderna. Vaccine demand is also strong in the U.S., where an estimated 44.1 million COVID, flu and RSV vaccinations have been given as of late October, up 3% over the same time last year, Moderna president Stephen Hoge said on the company's earnings call Friday.
In total, international revenue hit $533 million and U.S. revenue came in at $780 million, with the company expecting a roughly even split by the end of the year. Hoge said geographical expansion continues to be one of the pharma’s “key growth drivers.”
The other growth driver, he said, is pipeline expansion. In August, Moderna secured an FDA approval for the first and only mRNA flu shot, mFlusiva, in patients 50 years and up. The vaccine was also approved in Canada this week on Nov. 5.
Moderna did not elaborate on mFlusiva sales for the quarter, saying it planned for a limited U.S. launch for the 2026-2027 flu season since the FDA’s approval landed after the year’s flu vaccines were already contracted.
The pharma has also landed approvals this year in the European Union and Canada for its COVID and flu combination vaccine, mCoflu. Moderna pulled its application for mCoflu with the FDA in 2025 to wait on phase 3 efficacy data. In its Q3 earnings report, the company said it “continues to await further guidance from the FDA regarding refiling in the United States.”
Moderna also noted in its Q3 update that the company has now settled multiple patent disputes related to its vaccines in COVID and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In March, the company paid out $950 million upfront to settle infringement litigation with Arbutus and Genevant. And on Oct. 28, Moderna reached an agreement with GSK, ending disputes in the U.S. and Europe and granting all parties patent cross-license in infectious disease. Per the agreement neither, party is obligated to make payments.
GSK filed lawsuits in 2024 alleging patent infringement by Moderna related to lipid mRNA vaccine formulation technology, targeting both the company's COVID vaccine and its mRNA-based RSV shot.