The post-pandemic period has posed serious challenges for financial forecasters at the top mRNA vaccine makers, as evidenced by Pfizer's inability to hit its original sales outlook for 2023.
But these forecasting challenges are still dragging on into 2024. Take Moderna, which just chopped $500 million to $1 billion from its 2024 sales forecast—in August—leaving some investors rushing to sell shares.
On Thursday, Moderna lowered its full-year sales guidance to a range of $3 billion to $3.5 billion from a prior estimate of $4 billion. In its second-quarter earnings release, Moderna credited the revision to "very low EU sales in 2024, potential revenue deferrals for certain international sales into 2025, and an increasingly competitive environment for respiratory vaccines in the U.S."
Three months ago, Moderna reaffirmed its prior 2024 revenue guidance of $4 billion, so the company's outlook for the second half of the year must have changed rather dramatically in recent months.
In response to the news, Moderna shares were down about 12% before the U.S. markets opened on Thursday.
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in a statement that the company remains "focused on execution for the 2024-25 COVID season," in addition to the launch of its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine mRESVIA.
The company's RSV shot scored FDA approval in late May and will contend with more established vaccines from GSK and Pfizer, which have been available since last year. But in a surprise setback for the trio of vaccine developers, CDC vaccine advisers in June tweaked their recommendations for who should receive an RSV vaccine, likely resulting in a smaller market going forward.