Moderna has spent the last several years riding the ups and downs of the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, the mRNA specialist is adjusting to a severe sales slide and uncharted waters as the world enters the endemic phase of the virus.
Gearing up for a critical fall vaccination season, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel believes the company can right the ship.
Moderna has said it expects to generate between $6 billion and $8 billion this year based on a U.S. market size of 50 million to 100 million COVID vaccine doses administered. In an interview, Bancel said he believes Moderna will beat the low end of the guidance range.
“Do I really [think it's] going to be as low as 50 [million doses]? I don't," he said in an interview.
The CEO's thinking is as follows: There are set to be roughly 150 million to 170 million flu shots delivered for the 2023-24 season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since flu is an optional shot, those getting vaccinated want to be vaccinated.
If only 50 million people receive COVID boosters, that means two out of three flu shot recipients would have passed on an additional wall of protection from COVID, Bancel explained.
“And this I have a hard time believing, because those people receiving a flu shot don’t want to be sick,” he said.
Still, he acknowledged that not everyone getting a flu shot will want the COVID booster, saying the market is likely still “a few years” from nearing the 150-million-dose range.
The comments come as Moderna reportedly works with partners to scale back COVID vaccine production to adjust to weakened demand. In the first half of the year, Moderna reported $2.12 billion in sales, a 79% decrease from the same period in 2022.
In addition, many have questioned the list price of the new COVID vaccines now that they’re rolling out through the commercial market. Moderna’s new vaccine carries a list price of $129, while Pfizer’s rival is $115.
In a previous interview, Moderna Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock emphasized that the company expects the net out-of-pocket costs for insured U.S. consumers to be essentially nothing.
Mock also explained that the company is pricing based on relatively unknown consumption levels now that the spread of the virus has switched from pandemic to endemic.
“And now as we transition to an endemic environment, we are taking this 100% at risk,” he said.
Moderna’s shares rose about 5% as of Wednesday afternoon off the company’s R&D rundown, which included projections that Moderna could generate upward of $15 billion per year around 2033 assuming new product approvals in oncology, rare diseases and more by 2028.