Each year at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, pharma CEOs are tasked with assuring and convincing investors that they’ve positioned their companies to overcome expected challenges. Monday, three Big Pharma leaders took center stage and addressed concerns about future patent expirations head-on.
In separate presentations, the CEOs of Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer and Merck laid out their plans to overcome high-profile losses of exclusivity (LOEs) slated to dent sales through the end of the decade.
Bristol Myers Squibb’s Chris Boerner had the first chance at JPM, describing in a presentation how he sees 2025 in “two dimensions.” On one hand, Boerner explained, the company’s "legacy portfolio" will continue to see “LOE exposure.” Revlimid, the big-selling multiple myeloma drug acquired in Bristol’s buyout of Celgene, will face a new slate of generics in March and then a full generic market in 2026, Boerner said.
The drug generated $4.4 billion in the first 9 months of 2024, but BMS expects an "additional step down” to $2 billion to $2.5 billion in 2025.
In addition, Pomalyst and Sprycel are expected to face 2025 generics, the CEO said, so there’s a “stacking effect" expected to take place this year. Those drugs generated $2.7 billion and $1 billion worldwide through the first 9 months of last year.
BMS isn’t taking these revenue threats lying down. In his presentation (PDF), Boerner noted that BMS has 40 programs in mid- and late-stage development. In 2025, the company's portfolio of newer medicines, or its "growth portfolio," is expected to exceed 50% of total company sales.
Beyond marketed meds, the company sees the potential to launch 10 new drugs and secure 30 label expansions over the next five years, according to Boerner's presentation. Further, BMS plans to focus on workforce efficiency and productivity, and it will be “very mindful” about expenses, the chief exec said.
Overall, BMS is in a position to produce “top-tier growth in the sector by the end of the decade," Boerner said.
Pfizer’s ‘LOE wave’
During an afternoon discussion with J.P. Morgan analyst Chris Schott, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said there’s “clearly a LOE wave that is coming” for the company.
The LOE wave will cost Pfizer an expected $17 billion to $18 billion in annual revenues and is “coming in gradually" between 2026 and 2028, the CEO said. Pfizer drugs expected to lose U.S. patents in coming years include Inlyta, Xeljanz, Eliquis, Ibrance and Xtandi, according to the company's most recent annual report. Patent lapses don't necessarily bring immediate generic competition.
In recent years, Pfizer struck a series of M&A deals to help backfill the sales expected to be lost to generics. Acquired products, including those purchased in the company’s $43 billion purchase of Seagen, are expected to contribute $20 billion in annual revenues by 2030, Bourla said.
Beyond its acquired drugs, Pfizer believes some of its new product launches can outperform Wall Street's expectations, Bourla said.
Merck’s daunting Keytruda LOE
Of all of the upcoming patent losses in biopharma, none match up to Keytruda, the industry’s sales king in 2023. The immuno-oncology megablockbuster generated $25 billion in 2023 and $21.6 billion through the first nine months of 2024, demonstrating the challenge ahead for Merck as it works to grow through the drug’s eventual sales decline.
Merck believes it can achieve this task. Late Monday at JPM, CEO Robert Davis said the company has nearly tripled the number of assets in phase 3 development since 2021. The company has invested about $40 billion in strategic business development over that period, according to the CEO's presentation (PDF).
"I honestly believe if we can continue to make this same kind of progress over the next two to three years, there’s no reason we shouldn’t aspire to grow through the LOE, not just beyond the LOE,” Davis said.