We won't have an indication of Avandia's future until this afternoon's advisory panel vote. And we won't know for sure until FDA itself makes its decision. But analysts tend to think that if Avandia stays on the market, it will end up with more prominent safety warnings and perhaps a dialed-back set of indications.
So what drugs stand to benefit if Avandia is restricted or withdrawn? Medical Marketing & Media provides a helpful roundup of candidates. Chief among them is Avandia's direct rival Actos; already, the Takeda Pharmaceutical pill has benefited from Avandia's negative publicity, with its sales rising as Avandia's eroded.
But there's also Merck's DPP-IV inhibitor Januvia, which is already growing fast, totting up U.S. sales of $1.5 billion last year, a 32 percent year-over-year rise, MM&M reports. Onglyza, a newer DPP-IV drug from Bristol-Myers Squibb and AstraZeneca, could also grab market share; that opportunity would be a boon for the drug, which came out of the gate last August and hasn't built up a big business since.
And then there are the new injectables--Novo Nordisk's new GLP-1 drug Victoza and the Eli Lilly/Amylin drug Byetta. Analysts tell MM&M that Victoza uptake has been quite strong, especially among primary care doctors. And despite some setbacks, Byetta has been successful enough to prompt Lilly and Amylin to develop a once-a-week version of the drug.
- read the MM&M analysis