Growth will slow to just 1.3% to 2015 for the branded prescription pharmaceutical industry's leading companies, according to latest research from independent market analyst, Datamonitor.
Between 2003 and 2009, theses same companies enjoyed robust sales growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1%. Sharp declines in branded sales following the loss of patent exclusivity will drive this rapid deteroation in growth.
Simon King, pharmaceutical company analyst at Datamonitor, comments: "The difficulty in developing new products, particularly those that can generate sufficient sales to compensate for blockbuster expiries, has compounded this problem. This has driven a steady shift away from blockbuster-centric growth strategies towards diversification into other areas of the market.
"Datamonitor predicts that those companies insulated from generic competition-or able to offset it via revenue growth sourced from a high biologics focus or the targeting of niche indications and areas of high unmet need will therefore emerge as the best performers."
Bayer, Novartis, Roche and GlaoxSmithKline wil be the only Big Pharma companies generating above average growth over the period to 2015; Datamonitor estimates a CAGR of 3.9%, 3.6% AND 2.6% respectively.
Of 43 branded companies examined in detail by Datamonitor, 11 are expected to report a negative sales CAGR over the period to 2015. Of those expected to deliver a positive sales CAGR, only six will exceed the 7.1% average shown between 2003 and 2009.