Eisai, Biogen's Leqembi set to generate $12.9B in sales through 2028: report

Over the last few months, most everything has broken favorably for Eisai and Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi.

In January, after the FDA signed off on an accelerated nod for the monoclonal antibody, it rejected a bid by Eli Lilly to gain endorsement for its similar Alzheimer’s treatment.

What would taking the lead in the race to treat Alzheimer’s patients mean in terms of sales? According to analysts with GlobalData Healthcare, the companies are poised to realize $12.9 billion in revenue from Leqembi through 2028.

The data analytics company estimates sales in the United States will grow at an annual rate of 106%, totaling $7.7 billion during the period. The projection assumes that Leqembi will gain full approval from the FDA, clearing the way for coverage from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).

The FDA is set to decide on Leqembi's full approval by July 6.

Last month, the CMS said no to providing coverage, but three weeks later, the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VHA) decided to allow veterans at an early stage of the disease to access Leqembi. Eisai has placed a $26,500 annual list price on the amyloid beta plaque reducing agent.

In making its cumulative sales projection, GlobalData also assumes that approvals for Leqembi will come this fall in Europe and Japan. The analysts predict a 77% compound annual growth rate in these geographies through 2028, providing total sales of $5 billion through the period.

Another analyst group, Evaluate Vantage, also sees Leqembi gaining commercial steam throughout the decade. Its experts recently pegged worldwide sales at $3 billion in 2028, while GlobalData places the figure at roughly $4.6 billion.

The emergence of Leqembi as the Alzheimer's frontrunner has come as a bit of a surprise, especially considering the hype for Lilly’s donanemab, which drew a sales projection of $8.1 billion through 2028 by Truist analyst Robyn Kamauskas.

But Leqembi’s profile rose with results from the phase 2 Athena AD trial, which showed a 27% reduction in disease progression versus placebo. At a press conference earlier this month, Eisai pegged peak sales of Leqembi at $7.3 billion in 2030.