Driven by Invega Sustenna, Aripiprazole Depot and Iloperidone Depot, Sales of the Atypical Depot Drug Class Will Nearly Do

New Depot Formulations Will Command Premium Pricing and Their Sales Will Offset Those Lost to the Generic Erosion of Janssen’s Risperdal Consta, According to Findings from Decision Resources

BURLINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, for the treatment of schizophrenia, sales of the atypical depot drug class will nearly double to $1.6 billion in 2020, driven by the uptake in Europe of Janssen’s Invega Sustenna and by the launches of Otsuka’s aripiprazole depot (beginning in 2012 in the U.S.) and the U.S. launch in 2015 of Novartis/Vanda Pharmaceutical’s iloperidone depot.

The findings from the Pharmacor topic entitled Schizophrenia reveal that, among the depot formulations, aripiprazole depot will achieve the greatest market success over the next decade, with sales of more than $650 million in 2020 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. The new depot formulations will command premium pricing and their sales will offset those lost to the generic erosion of Janssen’s Risperdal Consta, starting in 2014.

The findings also reveal that the schizophrenia drug market is saturated with antipsychotics that effectively treat the positive symptoms of schizophrenia as at least eight atypical antipsychotics (excluding alternative formulations) are available in most markets.

“The opportunities in this indication lie in developing therapies with new mechanisms of action that could be used in patients who are poorly controlled by their current therapies—which represent approximately one-third of patients, according to interviewed physicians,” said Decision Resources Analyst Anne-Elise Tobin, Ph.D. “A high unmet need remains for agents with novel mechanisms of action and/or therapies that are effective at treating the negative or cognitive symptoms associated with schizophrenia.”

The launch of two emerging therapies with unique mechanisms of action—Eli Lilly’s metabotropic glutamate receptor agonist LY-2140023 and Roche’s glycine transporter 1 inhibitor RG-1678—will be among the top market drivers. Through 2020, RG-1678 and LY-2140023 are each forecasted to earn peak-year sales of at least $500 million in schizophrenia.

Overall, total major-market sales of schizophrenia therapies will decline over the next ten years, owing to the generic entry of top-selling antipsychotics and these losses will be only partially offset by sales of emerging therapies. The overall market will decline from $6.4 billion in 2010 to $5.6 billion in 2013, and will then recover to $5.8 billion in 2020.

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