Bavarian Nordic's revenue forecast jumps⁠—again⁠—after fresh monkeypox vaccine order with Europe

For Bavarian Nordic, Tuesday brought another tranche of European monkeypox vaccine orders—and with it, the second recent boost to the Danish drugmaker’s 2022 revenue forecast.

The European Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) has ordered 110,000 doses of Bavarian Nordic’s smallpox/monkeypox shot, which is now bound for EU member states Norway and Iceland, the company said in a release.

Deliveries to HERA will kick off immediately and wrap up during the next couple of months, Bavarian Nordic added.

Thanks to the HERA order, plus other smaller orders, Bavarian Nordic has lifted its 2022 financial outlook yet again after a similar move in late May. The company is now eyeing full-year revenues between 1,900 million Danish kroner (about $267 million) and 2,100 million Danish kroner (about $295 million), up from a previous estimate between 1,800 million Danish kroner and 2,000 million Danish kroner. But because Bavarian Nordic is making big R&D investments in its two lead vaccine candidates—shots for RSV and COVID-19—the company still expects to chart a loss overall.

The company’s smallpox/monkeypox prophylactic MVA-BN, also known as Modified Vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic, carries different brand names around the world. The vaccine is known as Imvanex in Europe, Jynneos in the U.S. and Imvamune in Canada.

In the U.S., the vaccine's label includes the monkeypox use, but in Europe, it's only approved for smallpox.

Aside from the HERA deals for Norway and Iceland, Bavarian Nordic has locked up monkeypox shot supply orders with Canada and the U.S., plus it’s delivered doses to “a number of undisclosed countries globally.”

Bavarian Nordic entered the spotlight late last month as a monkeypox outbreak emerged in the U.S. and Europe. At the time, the company kicked things off by inking a vaccine supply contract with an unnamed European country.

At the same time, Bavarian Nordic confirmed the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority had exercised a $119 million option to manufacture freeze-dried monkeypox vaccine doses in 2023 and 2024 to replace current stock of bulk vaccine. It’s part of a $299 million agreement to replace existing liquid-frozen vaccine with the new version, which has longer shelf-life.

Once complete as expected by 2025, the contract would cover about 13 million freeze-dried doses of Jynneos, Bavarian Nordic said.