AVOS Life Sciences has created a new analysis using a term called a "replacement ratio" that measures how quickly new products replace lost sales from a particular drug company when it goes off patent. AVOS says the replacement ratio is a direct measure of R&D productivity.
According to the analysis, Schering-Plough is most likely to recover quickly with the most potential in the pipeline, despite earlier bad news about its cholesterol drugs, Vytorin and Zetia.
In fact, of the top 14 pharma companies worldwide, only two--Schering-Plough and Amgen--are projected to maintain a positive replacement ratio. On the other hand, the analysis predicts that in 2012, current bigwigs Roche and Sanofi-Aventis will drop to the bottom of the rankings, as there are no known plans on the part of either company to launch a new product before then.
Several major products will drop off patent by 2012, including Merck's Cozaar and Hyzaar, Wyeth's Effexor, Pfizer's Lipitor, J&J's Risperdal and Topamax and Eli Lilly's Zyprexa. AVOS speculates that the result will be that the top 14 drugmakers will see just 26 cents come in for every dollar lost that year, down 65 percent from 77 cents in 2007.
- read the Pharmalot blog post
The Top 15 R&D Budgets
The next generation of biotech blockbusters
FiercePharma's 2007 trends & 2008 predictions