Novo, Lilly set to dominate $71B GLP-1 drug market by 2032: J.P. Morgan

Demand is so strong for Novo Nordisk’s obesity drugs that the only limitation on sales—in the short term—seems to be the company’s ability to produce them.

So, what is the potential for these game-changing GLP-1 products now that Novo’s Wegovy is showing it can help boost heart health?

In 2030, Novo will have a chance to reach nearly half the market—a sales opportunity of some $33 billion—according to a recent report from analysts with J.P. Morgan. Analyst Richard Vosser has estimated that the global market will reach $71 billion by 2032, with Novo and Eli Lilly each accounting for 45% of its sales.

That’s a more than doubling of the market size ($34 billion) previously projected by JPM and is sparked by trial results released last month that indicate Wegovy can cut the risk of major cardiovascular events by 20%.

The company also presented evidence of Wegovy benefiting heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction. Novo will provide more trial results in November at the American Heart Association meeting.

“We believe this data marks the beginning of a paradigm shift in the way that obesity/CV disease is treated, with physicians moving to a weight-centric treatment of multiple co-morbidities associated with obesity, which we expect will lead to substantial demand for obesity products,” Vosser wrote in the report.

Further upgrades to the projection could come next year based on readouts from phase 3 trials evaluating Novo’s GLP-1 treatments against a variety of disorders including chronic kidney disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, the analysts said.

With the demand for obesity drugs growing, JPM sees Novo’s 2023-26 revenue compound annual growth rate increasing from 14% to 22%.

In the second quarter, sales of Novo's GLP-1 diabetes drug Ozempic reached $3.2 billion, up from $2.1 billion in the same quarter a year ago, while Wegovy generated $1.1 billion in sales. Novo reported a sales increase of 30% from the second quarter of 2022. 

Meanwhile, Eli Lilly has seen similar success for its GLP-1 diabetes answer Mounjaro, which has reported trial results that indicate it might provide more ability to trigger weight loss. The treatment generated sales of $980 million in the period, helping Lilly to a 28% revenue increase. It was just the fourth full quarter on the market for Mounjaro.

Predictions about the GLP-1 market have been varied. Eight months ago at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, Ph.D., estimated that the market could reach $90 billion by 2031. Bourla was discussing his company’s investigational oral treatment danuglipron (PF-07081532), which it acquired from Sosei Heptares.