Despite the major decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales since the 2022 peak, the infectious disease market is still expected to grow by 5.7% through 2029 with Pfizer, Gilead Sciences and GSK all set to be the dominant forces in this market.
That’s according to a new report out by analysts at GlobalData, which found the infectious disease market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.7% between 2023 and 2029 to reach $150 billion in annual sales by the decade’s end.
Three Big Pharmas will also emerge as the dominant players: Pfizer, Gilead and GSK, which will, according to GlobalData’s estimates, collectively generate 62% of total infectious disease drug sales in that six-year period.
And that comes despite a 63.8% decline in forecast sales for COVID-19 vaccines this year alone, with that partly offset by an “increasing demand for HIV drugs and continued high sales of COVID-19 therapeutics,” the firm said.
Pfizer will be boosted by its COVID med Paxlovid as well as its Prevnar pneumococcal disease vaccine franchise. Meanwhile, Gilead will rely on its major HIV products, and GSK, known for its strong presence in infectious disease, boasts a blockbuster shingles vaccine along with recent developments such as a new respiratory syncytial virus vaccine and an HIV pill.
“Pfizer annual sales are forecast to decline by 9.2% from 2023 to 2029 due to easing pandemic pressures and the relaxation of government COVID-19 vaccination programs,” explained Kevin Marcaida, pharma analyst at GlobalData, in a release.
Nevertheless, Pfizer is anticipated to retain its leading stance in the infectious disease market, primarily due to the sustained robust performance of its COVID-19 product lineup, spearheaded by the sales of Comirnaty, its COVID vaccine, and Paxlovid, according to the report.
“This is due to strategic price hikes in 2023 for the U.S. market and persisting COVID-19 incidences in emerging economies. As a result, Comirnaty and Paxlovid are projected to achieve an astounding $122 billion in sales between 2023 to 2029,” Marcaida added.
Gilead, meanwhile, is set to experience “steady infectious disease sales growth” of 12.4% from 2023 to 2029, the report finds, with HIV drug Biktarvy at the core of that, with GlobalData forecasting $92 billion in sales between 2023 and 2029.
GSK, meanwhile, will grow out two blockbuster drugs: shingles vaccine Shingrix and HIV drug Dovato. Total sales for Shingrix are set to hit $41 billion between 2023 to 2029 while Dovato will do around half that, $20 billion, over the same period.
“Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, and GSK are the three major companies driving growth in the infectious disease market” added Marcaida. “With their innovative products, these three industry leaders are well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding opportunities in the infectious diseases market.”