Analysts tip Eisai, Biogen and Lilly to drive eightfold explosion in Alzheimer's market value

GlobalData analysts are predicting an Alzheimer’s disease market boom, tipping its value across major regions to increase eightfold in a decade as therapies address unmet medical need.

The analysts valued the Alzheimer’s market across the U.S., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, U.K., Japan and China at a combined $2.4 billion in 2023. That figure says more about the dearth of treatment options than the needs of patients: Western populations are aging, and an estimated 4% of people aged 65 years and older in the U.S. alone have a dementia diagnosis, according (PDF) to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The constraint has been a lack of good drugs to treat those patients.

Eisai and Biogen, with Leqembi, and Eli Lilly, with Kisunla, have begun the process of establishing a drug arsenal for Alzheimer’s. Philippa Salter, managing neurology analyst at GlobalData, said in a statement that the companies will turn their early-mover advantage into market leadership. Salter is tipping sales of Leqembi and Kisunla to reach $3.6 billion and $3.8 billion, respectively, by 2033.

The forecast makes Leqembi and Kisunla key building blocks of GlobalData’s prediction that the overall Alzheimer’s business across the eight major markets will grow to $19.3 billion by 2033. Salter identified Anavex Life Sciences’ ANAVEX2-73, TauRx Therapeutics’ LMTX and Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide as other molecules that could contribute to the growth of the market in the coming years.

For its part, Novo’s assessment of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, in Alzheimer’s is built on a series of studies that have linked GLP-1 analogs to improved outcomes in the neurodegenerative disease. None of the studies prove the mechanism works in Alzheimer’s, but the signs were sufficiently encouraging to persuade Novo to run a trial that could boost the already rocket-propelled GLP-1 market.

That trio of molecules stands out in the late-stage pipeline because of their novel mechanisms, convenient oral administration and improved safety profiles compared to Leqembi and Kisunla, according to GlobalData. The fact that Leqembi and Kisunla are “only considered moderately effective” leaves room for better drugs, the analysts said, and spurs ongoing work toward the end goal of preventing disease.

“Key opinion leaders interviewed by GlobalData did not believe there will ever be one product that can cure AD. Rather, they consistently expressed that the future of AD treatment will entail the combinatory use of preventative, symptomatic and disease-modifying products,” Salter said. “Despite the significant anticipated growth for the AD market, many opportunities remain for developers.”