Launches from companies including Boehringer Ingelheim and Bristol Myers Squibb could drive sales of schizophrenia drugs up to $17 billion by 2031 despite generic erosion of incumbent products, according to GlobalData.
The data analytics and consulting company valued the market at $8.4 billion in 2021. The forecasted 7.4% compound annual growth rate through 2031 reflects a predicted transformation of the schizophrenia market. The period is expected to feature launches of new branded drugs, along with tough years for the long-acting injectables (LAI) Abilify Maintena, Aristada and Invega Sustenna, all of which are set to lose patent protection.
GlobalData has identified 11 late-stage pipeline products that could drive market growth despite generic erosion in the LAI market. Atypical antipsychotics, including cheap generics, could keep new drugs out of first-line monotherapy use and are expected to remain the largest drug class in 2031. But GlobalData sees opportunities for the pipeline prospects to carve out niches.
The analysts highlighted four molecules designed for use in combination with antipsychotics as assets that could make a mark on earlier lines of therapy. The potential adjunctive schizophrenia therapies are Newron Pharmaceuticals’ evenamide, Neurocrine Biosciences’ Ingrezza, Boehringer’s iclepertin and Bristol Myers’ Cobenfy.
“Should evenamide, Cobenfy, Ingrezza and iclepertin receive FDA approval for the adjunctive treatment of schizophrenia, patients will not need to switch from their current therapies,” Christie Wong, managing neurology analyst at GlobalData, said in a statement. “This could greatly help these products establish themselves within the highly competitive and genericized schizophrenia market.”
GlobalData analysts predict current late-stage pipeline candidates could account for one-third of the market by 2031. Cobenfy is central to the prediction, with the analysts forecasting that, with estimated sales of $2.2 billion, the Bristol Myers product will be the top-selling schizophrenia drug across the U.S., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the U.K. and Japan in 2031.