Amgen’s $13.4 billion Otezla bet can withstand competition from Bristol Myers Squibb’s Sotyktu. That is the conclusion of analysts at Spherix Global Insights, who found Amgen is holding on to its market share and largely limiting BMS’ growth to the conversion of users of injectable biologics.
BMS sold Otezla to Amgen to secure regulatory clearance for the Celgene merger, effectively betting that the then-investigational Sotyktu could triumph over its oral incumbent in plaque psoriasis. The bet paid off in the clinic, where Sotyktu beat Otezla, and the FDA approved its TYK2 inhibitor in the indication one year ago.
Spherix polled U.S. dermatologists to understand how things have played out since Sotyktu became the second oral plaque psoriasis drug on the market. The analysis found Amgen is yet to lose “any material share” to Sotyktu and generated evidence that the Big Biotech can continue to retain its riches.
“Sotyktu currently has and is projected to continue to make incremental gains in market share over the next six months; however, prescriber projections reveal that Sotyktu success will more likely come at the expense of the approved injectable biologics, as opposed to Otezla,” the analysts wrote in a statement.
BMS’ incremental gains delivered (PDF) Sotyktu sales of $41 million over the first half of the year. Otezla is a much bigger product, racking up sales of $600 million in the second quarter alone, but competitive dynamics are impacting Amgen. The Big Biotech told investors that “new patient demand was impacted by free drug programs for newly launched topical and systemic competitors.”
Amgen continues to see “strong growth potential for Otezla” despite rival launches restricting Otezla to a 1% uptick in sales in the second quarter. The Spherix data offer support for Amgen’s stance. While the polled dermatologists said Sotyktu outperforms Otezla on multiple metrics, Spherix saw little signs of an upcoming swing in market share.
Rather, the survey revealed a persistent unmet need in the oral space. The dermatologists named safety and tolerability as a weakness of Sotyktu and discussed their ideal oral agent. One dermatologist called for “an oral agent that is superior in efficacy to Otezla and safer than Sotyktu,” while another said the sector needs “an oral medicine with a clean safety profile that is as efficacious as the IL-23 injectables.”
Companies including Johnson & Johnson are aiming to deliver products that fit the called-for profile. The surveyed dermatologists said nearly 40% of moderate to severe psoriasis patients would be considered for J&J’s oral IL-23 inhibitor JNJ-2113, based on the phase 2b trial data published earlier this year.