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Analysts: Tysabri scrips will suffer
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When Biogen Idec announced last week that a potentially fatal brain infection had cropped up again in Tysabri patients, markets reacted swiftly--and negatively. But investors were only guessing at how that new information might affect new scrips for the drug, which has been hailed as a miracle treatment by many multiple sclerosis patients. Now, financial analysts have done some number-crunching to quantify those long-term effects. And the news isn't good.
Deutsche Bank analyst Mark Schoenbaum told investors that his best-case scenario pegged Tysabri at 75,000 users by 2013--not nearly the 100,000 patients Biogen had been shooting for by 2010. Under more conservative estimates, Schoenbaum predicted 56,000 Tysabri patients, again by 2013. And worst case? If more safety problems emerge, the drug could get pulled from the market--again. (For what it's worth, though, other analysts have said they don't expect Tysabri to be withdrawn.)
Meanwhile, a JP Morgan analyst estimated that the number of Tysabri patients by 2010 would be only 50,000--even before the two cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) were reported. The analyst said he doesn't expect that estimate to drop much further.
- read the story in the Boston Globe
Related Articles:
Biogen: Tysabri patients have PML
Biogen CEO: Tysabri to reach $1B in 2008
No new PML cases for Tysabri
Watchdog endorses use of Tysabri for severe MS
After reintroduction, Tysabri builds patient base
Comments
By Anonymous | Posted 2:46pm | August 7, 2008
Do you analysts ever read anything about the drugs and companies you research? There is a warning on the side of Ty scrips which notes that there is a 1 in 1000 chance of getting PML. With 30k+ people on it, two cases, which are still of a questionable origin, is well below the FDA mandated warning. So really the story is that almost 30k people are being tremendously helped by Ty. Go to YouTube to see the testimonials about the regained strength, activity, being able to walk again stories told by MS suffers. For once I wish a journalist would research all sides of a story before writing, remember how mom and dad said think before you talk? The same thing applies to writing. How come there are any stories about the almost 30k people being helped by Ty. Go write one of those stories also to provide a balanced perspective.
Jim
By maureen | Posted 3:46pm | August 7, 2008
Whether or not there is a warning--and whether or not a patient chooses to accept the risk of the drug to reap the benefit--the markets are going to react and patients will be spooked by this kind of side effect. It's a simple fact of drug development that when a side effect like PML comes up it could potentially limit sales and cause patients to look at other options.
We have, in fact, noted that the drug will likely stay on the market this time because the benefit mostly outweighs the risk. As we stated in our August 1 article: "...[P]atients know about the PML risks before they go on Tysabri; the risk-management program makes sure of that. And so far, the number of PML cases appears to be in line with the statistical risk listed on the drug's label. So we'll have to watch the scrips."
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