Antibodies and immunotherapies are all the rage in the lung cancer drug market, but older, small-molecule drugs can still carve out a healthy niche—and AstraZeneca’s Tagrisso is set to be the leader in that market.
That’s according to a new report out by analysts at GlobalData, who see more than $7 billion in sales by 2029 for Tagrisso, a small-molecule kinase inhibitor. It was first approved in 2015 for certain non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with an EGFR mutation, later receiving a first-line green light in 2018 and an adjuvant approval in 2020.
Tagrisso is AstraZeneca’s biggest-selling drug, making $5.44 billion in 2022, up 15% in 2021 and more than double its newer oncology drugs Imfinzi, an immunotherapy and PARP inhibitor Lynparza.
“In the ever-evolving landscape of oncology, small-molecule drugs are carving a significant niche in lung cancer treatment,” said analysts at GlobalData. “Tagrisso is projected to be a pivotal contributor to AstraZeneca’s portfolio, with anticipated sales surpassing $7 billion and a 48% market share of small molecules in lung cancer treatment by 2029.”
GlobalData says it sees a “robust demand” for small molecules in the treatment of NSCLC in the eight major countries (U.S., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, U.K., Japan, and China), projecting the market to reach over $15 billion in total by 2029.
Roche meanwhile is expected to secure the second position with projected sales of over $2.5 billion and a market share of 17%.
The overall NSCLC market is however dominated by the blockbuster might of Merck’s Keytruda, a PD-1 immunotherapy that has a host of FDA approvals but is seen as a lung cancer leader, with labels for combo treatments as well as for first- and second-line therapies.
Keytruda made just shy of $21 billion in sales last year, dwarfing its immunotherapy rival Opdivo, from Bristol Myers Squibb, which also has a host of cancer indications and NSCLC approvals. Opdivo made $8.2 billion last year, making it the second biggest-selling drug for BMS after heart drug Eliquis, which made more than $11 billion.