AstraZeneca is sounding the crisis klaxon after spotting an “urgent and growing” global health situation that has “profound economic and environmental implications.” The drugmaker made the comments in response to forecasts of the impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) through 2032.
Researchers from AstraZeneca, which sells the CKD drug Farxiga, and other groups used a patient-level simulation to forecast the impact of CKD in various countries and published (PDF) the findings at the 2024 International Society of Nephrology World Congress of Nephrology in Buenos Aires. The forecast suggests CKD will take a heavy toll on the U.S., China, Spain and other countries in the coming years.
The model predicts CKD prevalence in 2032 will range from 11.7% in Australia to 16.5% in the U.S. China’s forecast prevalence is 14%. The Asian giant is one of four countries in which the prevalence of advanced-stage CKD is forecast to rise by at least 30% from 2022 to 2032.
Having forecast prevalence, the researchers unpacked the potential impact of the extra cases of CKD. The researchers predict dialysis requirements will rise by 75% or more in all eight analyzed countries. Other predictions include a 77% or more increase in renal replacement therapy costs in all the countries and at least a 23% rise in CKD-related hospital visits in seven of the nations.
Those numbers have economic and environmental implications. The researchers predict patients in the eight countries will miss 2.85 billion work days over 10 years. Factoring in 327 million days missed by CKD caregivers, the researchers estimate the eight countries will lose $37 billion in tax revenue.
The environmental effects of increased CKD relate to water and fossil fuels used in dialysis. Treating the CKD patients will use as much water a year as 2.7 million households and emit as much carbon dioxide as 17.3 million cars, the researchers estimate.
Ruud Dobber, executive vice president at AstraZeneca’s biopharmaceuticals business unit, framed the findings in a statement as evidence of the need to diagnose and treat CKD earlier. The drugmaker has hit that message in the past, pointing last year to the prevalence of undiagnosed moderate CKD to argue for more screening.
Better diagnosis of CKD could drive uptake of Farxiga, a medicine that generated (PDF) almost $6 billion across all indications last year. AstraZeneca has other CKD drug candidates in clinical development.