Top 5 vaccines by 2020

Though it picked up some steam in 2014, Prevnar--anticipated to be the world's top shot in 2020--showed some signs of slowing in this year's EvaluatePharma World Preview 2015 report. According to the analysts, the shot--which last year was expected to haul in $6.08 billion in sales, will take in $5.83 billion in 2020. Still, though, enough to make it far and away the world's top vaccine in 5 years.

Last year, EP estimated that Pentacel, Gardasil, Fluzone and Pediarix would round out the top 5, but their estimates have shuffled a bit this year. Now, by 2020, the analysts predict Gardasil to take No. 2 with $2.52 billion in sales; Fluzone in No. 3 with $2.03 billion in sales; Pentacel at No. 4 with $1.68 billion in sales; and Pediarix in the fifth spot with $1.54 in 2020 sales.

All of the shots--minus Gardasil--showed signs of slowing, with the sharpest CAGR drop of 4% in Pentacel's case. Gardasil, last year expected to grow just 2%, is estimated in this year's report to post 4% growth through 2020.

Please review the list and feel free to comment by email. -- Amirah Al Idrus (email) and Eric Sagonowsky (email)

The top 5 vaccines by 2020
Vaccine & Company
Use
2014 Sales (billions)
2020 Sales (billions)
CAGR 2014-20

Pneumococcal infection
$4.297
$5.83
5%

Human papillomavirus (HPV)
$2.03
$2.52
4%

Influenza
$1.72
$2.03
3%

Diphtheria, pertussis/whooping cough; tetanus; polio; Haemophilus influenzae type B
$1.53
$1.68
2%

Diphtheria; tetanus; pertussis/whooping cough; hepatitis B; polio
$1.36
$1.54
2%
Courtesy of EvaluatePharma

 

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