Though it picked up some steam in 2014, Prevnar--anticipated to be the world's top shot in 2020--showed some signs of slowing in this year's EvaluatePharma World Preview 2015 report. According to the analysts, the shot--which last year was expected to haul in $6.08 billion in sales, will take in $5.83 billion in 2020. Still, though, enough to make it far and away the world's top vaccine in 5 years.
Last year, EP estimated that Pentacel, Gardasil, Fluzone and Pediarix would round out the top 5, but their estimates have shuffled a bit this year. Now, by 2020, the analysts predict Gardasil to take No. 2 with $2.52 billion in sales; Fluzone in No. 3 with $2.03 billion in sales; Pentacel at No. 4 with $1.68 billion in sales; and Pediarix in the fifth spot with $1.54 in 2020 sales.
All of the shots--minus Gardasil--showed signs of slowing, with the sharpest CAGR drop of 4% in Pentacel's case. Gardasil, last year expected to grow just 2%, is estimated in this year's report to post 4% growth through 2020.
Please review the list and feel free to comment by email. -- Amirah Al Idrus (email) and Eric Sagonowsky (email)
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The top 5 vaccines by 2020
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Vaccine & Company
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Use
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2014 Sales (billions)
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2020 Sales (billions)
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CAGR 2014-20
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|
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Pneumococcal infection |
$4.297
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$5.83
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5%
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|
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Human papillomavirus (HPV) |
$2.03
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$2.52
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4%
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|
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Influenza |
$1.72
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$2.03
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3%
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Diphtheria, pertussis/whooping cough; tetanus; polio; Haemophilus influenzae type B |
$1.53
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$1.68
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2%
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|
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Diphtheria; tetanus; pertussis/whooping cough; hepatitis B; polio |
$1.36
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$1.54
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2%
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Courtesy of EvaluatePharma |
