With so many drugs falling off the patent cliff, and taking drugmakers' revenues down with them, there has been a penchant to bet on riskier new drugs with bigger potential payoffs. But a new report from a top biopharma analyst at Bernstein Research find the success rate is, in a word, terrible, putting revenues further at risk. Tim Anderson tells Medical Marketing & Media that the Phase II success rate for experimental drugs plunged from 34% in 2003-2007 to 25% in the 2005 to 2009 era and 22% from 2007 to 2011. Phase III has done better but is still off. Meanwhile, costs are going up as the number of preclinical trials now average 30 during the first four-year stage, up from from 12. Mergers and tighter payment rules are part of the reasons why, he says. Story | More