Owing to Generic Erosion of Key Agents, the Colorectal Cancer Drug Market Will Remain Relatively Flat Through 2019

Genentech/Roche/Chugai's Avastin Will Face Minimal Challenges to Its Market-Leading Position, According to Findings from Decision Resources

BURLINGTON, Mass., Sept. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues finds that, owing to generic erosion of key agents, the colorectal cancer drug market will remain relatively flat over the next decade, increasing from more than $6.4 billion in 2009 to just under $6.7 billion in 2019 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan.

The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Colorectal Cancer reveal that the market leader -- Genentech/Roche/Chugai's Avastin -- will be minimally challenged in the colorectal cancer drug market over the next decade. Despite the emergence of biosimilar versions of Avastin, which is expected to begin in 2018, and increasing first-line use of other targeted agents, Avastin sales will decline only slightly from just over $2 billion in 2009 to $1.86 billion in 2019. Additionally, the entry of two new vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-targeted agents into the market, Regeneron/Sanofi-Aventis's aflibercept (VEGF Trap) and ImClone Systems/Eli Lilly's ramucirumab, will fail to make a significant impact, together garnering only 4.9% of major market sales.

The Pharmacor 2010 findings also reveal that Bristol-Myers Squibb/ImClone Systems/Merck Serono's Erbitux dominates the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitors class, mainly because it was first drug in its class to launch for the indication, it can be used in combination with chemotherapy and has been approved in Europe and Japan for use in the lucrative first-line setting.

"Through 2019, Erbitux's market share will grow incrementally, even in the face of biogeneric erosion and the use of additional anti-EGFR treatments in the first- and second-line settings," said Decision Resources Analyst Regina Jammen. "Erbitux's first-to-market position has helped establish it as the market-leading anti-EGFR therapy."

The findings also reveal that, although a variety of suitable treatments for the indication are available, new therapies are required that will meet the needs of subsets of colorectal cancer patients. Several treatments that are expected to launch by 2019 will meet some of the needs of heavily pretreated patients with KRAS (Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homologue) mutations, patients with liver metastases and high-risk stage II patients. These late-stage therapies include AEterna Zentaris/Keryx Biopharmaceuticals' perifosine (KRX-0401), Light Sciences Oncology/Nippon Petrochemicals/Meiji Seika Kaisha's Aptocine/Laserphyrin (talaporfin) and the OncoVax vaccine, Vaccinogen.

"However, we forecast that none of these late-stage therapies will achieve blockbuster sales for colorectal cancer," Ms. Jammen said.

About Pharmacor 2010

The newly redesigned Pharmacor advisory service offers clients in the biopharmaceutical industry the most up-to-date information available on commercially significant disease topics.

About Decision Resources

Decision Resources (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources, Inc. company.

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SOURCE Decision Resources