LONDON, UK (GlobalData), 15 April 2015 - The global treatment market for melanoma will expand more than fourfold in value from $1.34 billion in 2013 to reach an estimated $5.64 billion by 2023, representing a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.5%, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.
The company's latest report* states that this impressive growth, which will occur across the eight major markets (8MM) of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Australia, will be driven primarily by increasing sales of Bristol-Myers Squibb's blockbuster immunotherapy Yervoy.
Fenix Leung, DPhil, GlobalData's Analyst covering Oncology and Hematology, says: "While Yervoy's sales will be negatively impacted by the first-line uptake of PD-1-targeting monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) Keytruda and Opdivo from 2015 to 2017, the approval of the Yervoy/Opdivo combination will recover the former's market position in the second half of the forecast period.
"Furthermore, Yervoy's label expansion into the lucrative adjuvant setting will further enhance its sales from 2019 onwards."
GlobalData estimates sales of $889 million for Yervoy in the 8MM in 2013, and forecasts this to rise at a CAGR of 8.2% to $1.96 billion by 2023.
The analyst adds that the recent launch of premium-priced, PD-1-targeting mAbs and BRAF/MEK inhibitor combinations will play a central role in driving the melanoma market expansion by 2023.
Leung explains: "The BRAF/MEK inhibitor combinations, in particular Novartis' Tafinlar/Mekinist and Roche/Exelixis' Zelboraf/cobimetinib, will replace standard BRAF inhibitor monotherapy of Zelboraf or Tafinlar. In addition, Keytruda and Opdivo will garner rapid growth in both BRAF mutated and wild-type settings.
"These novel agents and combinations will experience large uptake globally, thanks to their improved overall response rate and overall survival, along with their manageable side effect profiles. Notably, the combination treatments will fetch a higher premium price than monotherapies, which, on top of raising company sales, will also result in greater pushback from payers."
GlobalData expects these new, more efficacious entrants to replace generic chemotherapy-only regimens in the first- and second-line settings, therefore driving the growth of the overall melanoma market and extending the lines of treatment available for patients.
"The launch of these improved agents will ensure that many patients receive one to two lines of treatment with branded premium-priced drugs by 2023 and beyond," Leung concludes.
*PharmaPoint: Melanoma – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023