Sales of Tarceva and Alimta, Two Agents That Dominated the Market in 2010, Will Weaken from 2015 to 2020, According to Findings from Decision Resources
BURLINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, despite generic erosion of several key agents used in the management of the disease, the non-small-cell lung cancer drug market will increase 2.5 percent annually between 2010 and 2020, although growth will be generated exclusively in Europe and Japan. Most notably, sales of Genentech/OSI Pharmaceuticals/Roche/Chugai Pharmaceutical’s Tarceva and Eli Lilly’s Alimta, two branded treatments that dominated the non-small-cell lung cancer market in 2010, will weaken from 2015 to 2020.
The findings from the Pharmacor topic entitled Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer also reveal that co-development of a drug and companion diagnostic based on a validated biomarker will help developers achieve success in this increasingly personalized market. Co-development of Pfizer’s Xalkori and Abbott Molecular’s Vysis* reflect the power of a biomarker-driven strategy for non-small-cell lung cancer. High response rates that underlie premium-pricing and the possibility of lower reimbursement hurdles for the drug due to selection of anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive patients will turn a seemingly small and unprofitable patient subset into a lucrative and well-served market segment.
Through 2020, Decision Resources expects several more targeted treatments for small patient subsets to enter the non-small-cell lung cancer market. These agents include Boehringer Ingelheim’s Tomtovok/Tovok, Pfizer’s dacomitinib, Genentech/Roche/Chugai’s onartuzumab (MetMAb), ArQule/Daiichi Sankyo/Kyowa Hakko Kirin’s tivantinib, Eisai’s Halaven, and Sanofi’s iniparib. As a result, many of the emerging therapies for non-small-cell lung cancer will increasingly provide patients with a personalized approach to treatment.
“Even as non-small-cell lung cancer treatments become more specific to particular histological and molecular subtypes, few treatments in advanced clinical development will address the high level of unmet needs of patients with squamous cell tumors, which represent approximately 30 to 40 percent of the total population, and KRAS mutations, which represent 22 percent of patients with adenocarcinomas,” said Decision Resources Analyst Regina Jammen. “These are sizeable and potentially commercially lucrative underserved patient populations.”
The Pharmacor Patient Flow Model for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer finds that changes in the prevalence of smoking, combined with some improvements in recurrence-free survival, will limit growth in the drug treatable populations, particularly for advanced disease. In this setting the number of drug-treatment opportunities will remain largely flat from 2010 to 2025.
“Improvements in survival will lead to an increase in the number of people living with a history of non-small-cell lung cancer as this number will exceed one million people in 2018 across the world’s major pharmaceutical markets and will grow by 36 percent through 2025,” said Decision Resources Principal Epidemiologist Mike Hughes Ph.D. “Due to the aggressive nature of non-small-cell lung cancer and high risk of recurrence, the majority of those living with a history of the disease are eligible for some form of drug therapy.”
*Abbott Molecular’s Vysis ALK (anaplastic lymphoma kinase) Break Apart FISH (fluorescence in situ hybridization) Probe Kit.
About Pharmacor
Decision Resources’ Pharmacor advisory service offers clients in the biopharmaceutical industry the most up-to-date information available on commercially significant disease topics.
About Pharmacor Patient Flow Models
By utilizing our proprietary Pharmacor epidemiological data, Decision Resources now provides Pharmacor Patient Flow Models covering breast cancer, colorectal cancer, gastric cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer, prostate cancer and renal cell carcinoma. Using Pharmacor Patient Flow Models, users can build their own oncology patient flow model and/or validate the logic behind their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track changing disease and population dynamics over a 15-year annualized forecast, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within lines of therapy. Pharmacor Patient Flow Models is available as an add-on product to the Pharmacor advisory service.
About Decision Resources
Decision Resources (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources Group company.
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