The Breast Cancer Drug Market Will Remain Largely Static over the Next Decade, Owing to the Generic Erosion of Key Agents

In 2019, Combined Sales of Emerging Breast Cancer Therapies Will Account for More Than One-Quarter of the Overall Market, According to Findings from Decision Resources

BURLINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the breast cancer drug market will remain largely static over the next decade, increasing from $10.2 billion in 2009 to $10.4 billion in 2019 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan. Significant declines in sales, owing to generic erosion of key agents and a substantial reduction in the prescribing of Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Avastin (bevacizumab) due to its withdrawal from the U.S. market will be offset by an annual increase in breast cancer incidence and by the uptake of premium-priced emerging agents. In 2019, combined sales of emerging breast cancer therapies will account for more than one-quarter of the overall market.

The findings from Decision Resources’ analysis of the breast cancer drug market also reveal that, despite oncologists’ awareness at the time of the survey that the U.S. Oncologic Drug Advisory Committee had recommended Avastin’s label in breast cancer be removed, the majority of surveyed U.S. oncologists (63 percent) selected Avastin plus paclitaxel (Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Taxol, generics) as the most efficacious treatment for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, when compared to other currently available therapies. Owing to Avastin’s dominance in metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, few physicians chose Celgene’s Abraxane (nanoparticle paclitaxel), paclitaxel or Taxotere as the most efficacious therapy for the indication.

Based on clinical data and the opinions of interviewed thought leaders, Abraxane is the current gold-standard therapy owing to its strongest clinical profile among key marketed products that are used to treat metastatic triple-negative breast cancer. However, owing to its competitive advantages in efficacy, ramucirumab (Eli Lilly’s IMC-1121b) plus Taxotere is expected to displace Abraxane and will earn Decision Resources’ proprietary clinical gold-standard status for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer in 2019, following its launch for the indication in 2016.

“Surveyed U.S. oncologists and managed care organizations’ pharmacy directors indicate that efficacy, including improvement in time to disease progression, is one of the greatest unmet needs in metastatic triple-negative breast cancer,” said Decision Resources Analyst Amy Duval. “The opinions of interviewed thought leaders indicate that ramucirumab plus Taxotere has the potential to partially fulfill this unmet need.”

The findings also reveal that surveyed U.S. oncologists indicate that they would prescribe ramucirumab to 13 percent of their metastatic triple-negative patients. Owing to its favorable efficacy profile, ramucirumab is forecast to earn an 11 percent patient share in the U.S. metastatic triple-negative breast cancer drug market by 2019.

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Decision Resources provides a comprehensive view of what is happening in a specific drug market now and in the decade ahead. The research includes analysis of the unmet need and near-term drug development opportunities that exist within a drug market powered by primary research from physicians and payers. The robust market forecast and opportunities analysis is comprised of the Pharmacor 2011 advisory service and the DecisionBase 2011 report series.

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Decision Resources, Inc.
Christopher Comfort, 781-993-2597
[email protected]

KEYWORDS:   United States  North America  Massachusetts

INDUSTRY KEYWORDS:   Health  Oncology  Pharmaceutical  General Health