With Bayer's new launches in infancy, Eylea and Xarelto still rule its pharma business—but for how long?

Bayer is gradually shifting its pharma focus to a group of new blockbuster candidates and novel platforms. But before those drugs realize their potential, eye med Eylea and blood thinner Xarelto remain the pillars.

Once dampened by an overall ophthalmology market slowdown thanks to COVID-19, Eylea revenues grew 18.7% to hit 2.9 billion euros in 2021 for Bayer. For 2022, the German company expects the anti-VEGF market leader to gin up mid-single-digit percent growth.

But industry watchers have started to worry for Eylea, what with Roche’s newly FDA-approved bispecific antibody Vabysmo hitting the scene for both wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema.

Vabysmo comes with a flexible dosing schedule up to once every four months. By comparison, Eylea, at its recommended 2-mg dose, can be administered every two months after the loading doses.

During a Tuesday call with investors, Bayer’s pharma chief Stefan Oelrich acknowledged Vabysmo’s clinical data look good, and “they are catching up to us.” But still, Bayer expects “continued growth in the coming years, only impeded by loss of exclusivity that will occur around 2025,” he added.

Bayer and partner Regeneron are testing an 8-mg version of Eylea, hoping to lengthen the drug’s injection interval. Phase 3 data from that program are expected in the second half of the year.

RELATED: Roche, with an FDA nod for Vabysmo in hand, looks to challenge Regeneron's dominant Eylea

Meanwhile, Xarelto remained Bayer’s best-selling drug with 2021 sales of 4.7 billion euros, a 6% increase at constant currencies. But the oral anticoagulant is clearly slowing down as it starts to lose market exclusivity in some of Bayer’s ex-U.S. territories.

In the fourth quarter, Xarelto sales growth narrowed to just 1.2% at unchanged exchange rates, thanks to a major cost-cutting scheme in China for off-patent drugs. Xarelto has taken a significant price cut in the country starting in fall 2021 because of the program, known as volume-based procurement.

As Bayer braces for a full year of impact from the Chinese program, Oelrich admitted 2022 could be a tough year for Xarelto. Given the importance of China, “we may be facing a slight decrease” for the drug this year, he said.

The pressure on the two top-selling drugs comes as Bayer’s new drugs just start to take flight. Androgen receptor inhibitor Nubeqa, with sales of 219 million euros last year, still hasn’t made it onto Bayer’s top 15 drug list in its second full year on the market. The drug is competing against Johnson & Johnson’s Erleada and Astellas and Pfizer’s Xtandi.

RELATED: Bayer hikes Nubeqa's peak sales to more than €3B on prostate cancer data, teeing up new 3-way battle against Pfizer-Astellas, J&J

In a boost to Bayer, Nubeqa just showed its addition to androgen deprivation therapy and the chemotherapy docetaxel significantly extended the lives of patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer in a phase 3 trial dubbed ARASENS. Based on the positive readout, Bayer has dialed up its peak sales estimate for Nubeqa to more than 3 billion euros.

Elsewhere in Bayer’s pharma business, the company in September launched Kerendia for chronic kidney disease associated with Type 2 diabetes. The drug has also shown a benefit in lowering heart-related events.

So far, the launch uptake is “in line with other successful cardiovascular medicines,” Oelrich told investors on the call. He declined to offer more details, saying the rollout is still in early stages.

Overall, Bayer’s drug franchise registered 18.3 billion euros in 2021 sales, up 7.4% at constant exchange rates. For 2022, the German conglomerate expects the unit to grow sales around 3% to 4%.