Adderall

Is Shire worth a 25% premium?

Tracy Staton — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:38:46 -0400

Can Shire weather the upcoming loss of Adderall XR to the off-patent wildnerness? Company execs say it can: They point out that 60 percent of the company's revenues derive from other products. And they say Vyvase, their new ADHD med, will pick up the Adderall slack--despite the fact that its uptake so far hasn't met expectations. But as Barron's points out, Shire is trading now at 15 times earnings, a 25 percent premium to the current industry multiple of 12 times. If the FDA doesn't listen to Shire's petition--which calls for XR copycats to undergo clinical trials--then generics will hit the market next year. And if Vyvanse doesn't step up to the plate, "Shire wouldn't merit its 25 percent premium," Barron's bluntly states. That's a lot of "ifs"--on either side.

- see the Barron's analysis

AZ, Amgen earnings flat; Shire sales leap

Fri, 25 Apr 2008 06:59:54 -0400

It's a mixed bag of drugmaker earnings reports today, with two biggies posting flat results and two smaller firms chalking up respectable gains.

AstraZeneca's profits suffered under restructuring costs and falling Nexium sales, reporting a $2.1 billion gain, 5 percent less than the same quarter last year. Sales were 10 percent higher at $7.7 billion, but much of that increase came from the weak dollar. Analysts and shareholders were unimpressed; UBS wrote that the "ramifications of [the first quarter results] could be far reaching."
Amgen's earnings were mostly flat: Net income of $1.14 billion compared with $1.11 billion a year ago, with accounting charges eating into earnings. Revenues, however, slid by 2 percent, to $3.61 billion. No big surprise, considering that sales of its biggest drug, Aranesp, free-fell by 25 percent; it and its sister med Epogen have been hamstrung by safety concerns for months now.
U.K. specialty pharma Shire posted a 33 percent hike in sales to $702 million, slightly ahead of analyst expectations. EPS was up to 22.7 cents from 21.3 cents during last year's first quarter. One sour note: The company estimated that its Vyvanse ADHD drug--which the company hopes will replace its soon-to-go-off-patent Adderall--would generate sales on the "lower end" of its predicted range of $350 million to $400 million.
Ireland's Elan also posted a big increase in sales--22 percent, to $214.7 million--but still reported a loss of $85.5 million. At least the loss is smaller than last year's $93 million. The revenue increase came from surging sales of its lead drug, the MS treatment Tysabri it co-markets with U.S.-based Biogen Idec.

- see the AstraZeneca piece in the Financial Times
- check out MarketWatch's story on Amgen
- read the Shire article at Orange
- find Elan's numbers in Forbes

Pros use pills to boost brainpower

Thu, 10 Apr 2008 06:59:57 -0400

Fuzzy-headed today? Then pop a pill. Professionals of all kinds are doing it these days, according to a survey taken by Nature. Young, old, you name it--they're taking various meds to boost their concentration and memory. Some 62 percent prefer Ritalin, the ADHD med made by Novartis. Another 44 percent liked Cephlon's Provigil, the "keep-awake" drug. Others used Adderall or another amphetamine, beta blockers, even centrophenoxine, a dementia med.

Now, the survey was open only to Nature subscribers, who tend to be scientists, engineers, or folks like journalists who follow science closely. So it's not a generalized, randomized bit of research. (Of the 1,400-odd people who responded, about 15 percent were biologists and 15 percent engineers; 12 percent were educators, 8 percent worked in the medical field, and 7 percent in the media.) But it does show a clear trend.

Another thing: Almost 80 percent of the respondents said healthy people should be allowed to take cognitive-enhancing drugs if they choose. But even more--86 percent--felt that kids under 16 shouldn't be on any of these meds.

- read the Washington Post story
- check out the item in the WSJ Health Blog

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