Report: GSK to beat Pfizer by 2012

Who's No. 1 in Big Pharma? Well, in a few years it won't be Pfizer, according to a new industry report. URCH Publishing predicts that GlaxoSmithKline will overtake Pfizer as the world's largest by 2012. Pfizer won't even be able to hang onto second place, the report says; that will belong to Roche [1].

Currently, it's Pfizer in the lead with a market share of 6.2 percent. GSK comes in second with 5.4 percent, and Roche boasts a third-place 4.3 percent. That's all going to change, though, as only two of today's top 10 are expected to post industry-beating growth: Roche and Novartis. The global pharma market is poised for compound annual growth of 5.5 percent over the next four years, to $929 billion, the report states. Roche is expected to rack up 6.2 percent and Novartis 6.1 percent.

What about other big-name drugmakers? Johnson & Johnson [2] and Merck are expected to generate only "stagnant growth" through 2012, URCH predicts.

The report's reasoning behind its sales projections is familiar: Future growth will be limited by increased generic competition [3], a lack of new blockbusters and high prescription co-pays for insured consumers.

- see the release [4] from URCH Publishing

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The Top 15 R&D Budgets [5]
GlaxoSmithKline does better in Q3 [6]
Witty: Diversifying and derisking GSK [7]
Pfizer plans big push into generics [8]
Is Pfizer's pipeline a pipedream? [9]
Pfizer's future rests with biotech [10] (Sept 2007)