Biologics to top pharma sales by 2014

What will the pharma landscape look like after all those big, traditional drugs drop off the patent cliff? Here's a hint: Big Pharma might consider changing its name to Big Biotech.

By 2014, the biggest-selling meds will be biologics, according to an analysis from Evaluate Pharma. Taking the place of Pfizer's gargantuan drug Lipitor [1] will be Roche's Avastin [2], a cancer med expected to account for $9.23 billion in 2014 sales. (Even when you factor in the recent trial disappointments.) The next five top sellers, in order, are expected to be Humira [3] (Abbott Labs), Rituxan [4] (Roche), Enbrel [5] (Wyeth/Amgen), Lantus (Sanofi-Aventis), and Herceptin [6] (also Roche). Notice Roche claims three of the top six spots--with drugs developed by the recently-acquired Genentech.

Evaluate also predicts that half of the top 100 drugs in 2014 will be biotech meds--a huge change from last year's level of 28 percent and 11 percent in 2000. No wonder Big Pharma has been chasing biotech so hard lately.

Still, regular old small-molecule meds won't be totally passé. Far from it. Even if biotech drugs take 50 of the top 100 slots, all the biologic drugs together in 2014 will bring in $169 billion, Evaluate predicts. Small molecule meds? More than twice that, at $406 billion.

- here's 2008's sales [7] and 2014's projections [8]
- check out Evaluate's release [9]
- read the story [10] at in-Pharma Technologist
- see the Reuters coverage [11]

Related Articles:
Are we about to see another burst of buyouts? [12]
Drop in biotech valuations driving pharma deals [13]
Industry shakeout will lead to new M&A deals [14]
Warning: Patent cliff approaching [15]